miércoles, marzo 12, 2008

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No hace mucho tiempo se daba por descontado que la guerra de Irak sería el tema central en la campaña presidencial, como lo fue en las elecciones de mitad de período de 2006. Pero prácticamente ha desaparecido, lo que ha generado cierta perplejidad.

No debiera haberla. "The Wall Street Journal" estuvo cerca de acertar en un artículo de primera plana sobre el supermartes, aquel día de múltiples primarias: "Los temas pasan a segundo plano en la campaña 2008 a medida que los electores se enfocan en la personalidad".

Para ponerlo en forma más precisa, los temas dejan de figurar en primer plano, mientras los candidatos y sus agencias de relaciones públicas se centran en la personalidad. Como de costumbre, los temas pueden ser peligrosos. La teoría demócrata progresista sostiene que la población ("marginales ignorantes y entrometidos") debiera ser "espectadora" y no "partícipe" de la acción, como escribió Walter Lippmann.

Los partícipes están conscientes de que ambos partidos políticos están bien a la derecha de la población y que la opinión pública es consistente a través del tiempo, asunto analizado en el útil estudio "La desconexión de la política exterior", de Benjamin Page y Marshall Bouton. Es importante entonces que la atención sea desviada hacia otra parte.

El trabajo concreto del mundo es dominio de un liderazgo iluminado. Y ello se revela más en la práctica que en las palabras. El Presidente Wilson, por ejemplo, sostuvo que se debía empoderar a una elite de caballeros de "altos ideales" para preservar la "estabilidad y la corrección", esencialmente en la perspectiva de los Padres Fundadores (de Estados Unidos). En años más recientes, esos caballeros se han transmutado en la "elite tecnocrática", "intelectuales de acción", los neocons "straussianos" de Bush II y otras configuraciones. Para esta vanguardia, las razones para que Irak sea sacado de la pantalla de radar no debieran ser oscuras.

Fueron convincentemente explicadas por el distinguido historiador Arthur M. Schlensinger, articulando la posición de los "palomas" hace 40 años, cuando la invasión de Estados Unidos a Vietnam estaba en su cuarto año y Washington se preparaba para sumar otros 100 mil efectivos militares a los 175 mil que ya estaban haciendo añicos Vietnam del Sur. Por entonces, la invasión suponía arduos costos, por lo que Schlesinger y otros liberales de la línea Kennedy eran reacios a pasar de halcones a palomas.

En 1966, Schlesinger escribió que "todos oramos" porque los halcones tengan la razón al pensar que el incremento militar del momento podrá "eliminar la resistencia" y, si lo hace, "todos podríamos estar saludando la sabiduría y la capacidad estadista del Gobierno" al obtener la victoria, dejando al mismo tiempo al "trágico país hecho polvo y devastado por los bombardeos, arrasado por el napalm, convertido en una tierra baldía por la defoliación química, una tierra en ruinas", con su "tejido político e institucional" pulverizado. Pero la escalada probablemente no tendrá éxito y resultará demasiado costosa para nosotros, por lo que tal vez habría que repensar la estrategia. A medida que los costos para comenzaron a elevarse severamente, pronto ocurrió que todos habían sido "fuertes opositores a la guerra".

El razonamiento de la elite y las actitudes que lo acompañan conllevan hoy pocos cambios. Y a pesar de que las críticas a la guerra de Irak son mucho mayores y extendidas que en el caso de Vietnam en cualquier etapa comparable, los principios que articuló Schlesinger siguen vigentes. Y él mismo ha tomado una posición muy diferente ante la invasión de Irak. Cuando las bombas comenzaron a caer sobre Bagdad escribió que las políticas de Bush son "alarmantemente similares a la política que aplicó el Japón imperial en Pearl Harbor, en un fecha que, como dijo un anterior Presidente estadounidense, perdurará en la infamia.

Franklin D. Roosevelt tenía razón, pero hoy somos nosotros los que vivimos en la infamia". Que Irak es "una tierra en ruinas" no está en cuestión. Recientemente la agencia británica Oxford Research Business actualizó su estimación de muertes adicionales causadas por la guerra en 1,03 millones, excluyendo a Karbala y Anbar, dos de las peores regiones. Sea correcta esa estimación, o exagerada, según algunos, no hay duda de que el balance es horrendo. Varios millones de personas se encuentran internamente desplazadas.

Gracias a la generosidad de Jordania y Siria, los millones de refugiados que huyen del colapso de Irak, incluyendo a la mayoría profesional, no han sido simplemente exterminados. Pero esa acogida se debilita porque Jordania y Siria no reciben ningún apoyo significativo por parte de los autores de los crímenes en Washington y Londres; la idea de que ellos puedan admitir esas víctimas, más allá de casos puntuales, es demasiado estrafalaria para ser considerada. La guerra sectaria ha devastado a Irak. Bagdad y otras áreas han sido sometidas a una limpieza étnica brutal y dejadas en manos de señores de la guerra y milicias, la primera carta de la actual estrategia de contrainsurgencia desarrollada por el general Petraeus.

Uno de los más informados periodistas que se han adentrado en la chocante tragedia, Nir Rosen, publicó recientemente un epitafio, "La muerte de Irak", en "Current History". Escribe Rosen: "Irak ha sido asesinado, para nunca más levantarse. La ocupación estadounidense ha sido más desastrosa que la de los mongoles, que saquearon Bagdad en el siglo XIII", percepción común de los iraquíes. "Sólo los tontos hablan ahora de ‘soluciones’. No hay solución. La única esperanza es que tal vez el daño pueda limitarse".

Independiente a la catástrofe, Irak sigue siendo un tema marginal en la campaña presidencial. Eso es natural, dado el espectro halcón-paloma de la opinión elitista. Las palomas liberales adhieren a su razonamiento y actitudes tradicionales, rezando por que los halcones tengan la razón, EEUU obtenga una victoria e imponga "estabilidad", palabra código para la subordinación a la voluntad de Washington.

Los halcones son alentados y las palomas silenciadas con entusiastas informes sobre menores bajas tras el incremento de tropas. En diciembre, el Pentágono difundió "buenas noticias" sobre Irak: un estudio mostraba que los iraquíes tienen "opiniones mezcladas", por lo que la reconciliación debería ser posible. Las opiniones eran dos. Primero, que la invasión de EEUU es la causa de la violencia sectaria que ha hecho trizas a Irak. Segundo, que los invasores debieran retirarse.

Unas pocas semanas después del informe del Pentágono, el experto militar en Irak de "The New York Times", Michael R. Gordon, escribió un análisis razonado sobre las opciones respecto a Irak que enfrentan los candidatos presidenciales. Hay una voz que falta en el debate: la de los iraquíes. Más bien, no es digna de mencionar.

Y parece que a nadie le importa. Eso tiene sentido en la habitual presunción tácita de casi todos los discursos sobre política internacional: somos dueños del mundo, ¿qué importa entonces lo que otros piensen? Son "no-personas", por tomar prestado el término usado por el historiador británico Mark Curtis en su trabajo sobre los crímenes imperiales de Gran Bretaña. Por rutina, los estadounidenses se unen a los iraquíes en ser no-personas. Tampoco sus preferencias brindan opciones.



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